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به پایگاه اطلاعرسانی «مرکز تحقیقات سیاست علمی کشور» خوشآمدید!
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This book is an introduction to those who want to familiarize themselves with the concept of prospective writing and one of its most important and most methodical techniques, scenario writing, and to see practical examples of the application of this technique in the field of education and higher education. The examples presented in this book are the result of studies conducted in the field of higher education in Iran and the world that has been written until the writing of the book.
The book has an introduction and four chapters. In the introduction to the book, we will first familiarize with a brief history of future studies and foresight. There is also a fairly comprehensive discussion of the differences and similarities between prediction and foresight, especially as regards the conceptual defects of prediction as a way of knowing the future and its major weaknesses in comparison with foresight methods.
In the first chapter, the concepts and principles of foresight are discussed, and the different divisions of foresight methods are discussed from different aspects, such as geographic levels, types, orientations, audiences, goals, and functions.
In the second chapter, we introduce different scenario methods as one of the most commonly used forecasting techniques. In this chapter quantitative and qualitative methods of scenario writing are discussed and the method which is called GBN is introduced as the most commonly used scenario writing method in the field of higher education foresight.
In the third chapter, the scenario writing experiences in Iran's higher education sector, which mainly includes activities carried out at the Future Studies Desk and the full details of a comprehensive research project undertaken by the author on future student recruitment scenarios under the non-profit higher education system of Iran Is provided.
Dear readers are expected to be familiar with the details of a scenario writing project by studying this chapter, and will be able to provide the basis for the launch of a scenario on topics related to higher education.
In the final chapter of the book (4th), there are prominent examples of scenario writing experiences in the field of higher education in the world in order to provide readers for perception of higher education future in different parts of the world (such as the European Union, India, OECD countries, Ireland, and some special Universities of the World).
At the end of the book, a complete profile is provided to facilitate the reader's access to the terms and concepts used in the book.