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Foundations of Futures Studies and Methodology

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Saeid Khazaei; Amir Nazemi; Amir Hushang Heidari; Aziz Alizadeh; Hamed Kashani
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Ever-developing world is a competition to have more share of the future. Futures Studies in brief is systematic studies to dominate and build the futures. To realize this idea different methods have been applied yet. Several have been borrowed from other fields and customized to apply in futures studies and several of them have been introduced for the first time in the field. Having required knowledge of the methods and the way of applying them is an essential skill for futurists. In this report, we will discuss several selected methods from two points of view: first, conceptual view and second practical view. In the beginning of the report, we will introduce definitions, history of futures studies, active organizations, courses and school of thoughts in the field of futures studies. The rest of the report is allocated to chosen methods. Each chapter will start with concepts, terms and components of the method. To be familiar with application of methods in each chapter we will present a case study mostly having been selected from futures studies projects, which have been done in IRAN. Second chapter introduces the Delphi method, which is one of the first and popular methods. It has been widely used in pioneer countries in futures studies such as Japan, Germany and USA. Delphi is also used in PAMFA project in IRAN. In this chapter, PAMFA will be introduced as a case study. Next chapter explains scenario method. Scenario is a common method in the environments with high level of uncertainty. The global energy scenario up to 2020 with an emphasis on oil and gas will be presented as a case study in this chapter. In the fourth chapter another popular method, foresight, will be discussed. For this chapter we will return to PAMFA project as a case study of foresight. Next chapter is dedicated to cross impact analysis method. For application of the method, foresight project of human resources development of the oil industry in the global perspective of 1404 will be explained. Technology roadmap with explanation of ground transportation project in the United Kingdom will be examined on the rest. The two final methods of the report are visioning and trend analysis, which shape the two last chapters. Science and technology vision in agriculture sector from IRAN comprehensive science map project is our case study to state the methods.



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نویسنده: test (not verified) 1395/11/04 ساعت 11:35

saas dasd sa dsa dsa dasdas

نویسنده: ناشناس (not verified) 1395/11/05 ساعت 01:46

با سلام و تشکر از زحمات شما برای تولید دانش در ایران


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National Research Institute for Science Policy (NRISP) affiliated to the Ministry of Science, Research and Technology, I.R. Iran is a think tank in the fields of science and technology policy-making and research in the country.

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