The 4th Training Workshop on “Common Tools for Futures Studies” was held with the presence of the experts of Science and Technology Special Zones from Tabriz, Khorasan, Yazd and Isfahan Provinces on the 9th August 2017 at NRISP. Dr. Saeed Khazaei, the instructor of the workshop explained about Futures Studies as follows: in the strategies of Futures Studies, Management and similar fields, decision science and how to decide are being discussed. Since, decision depends on our knowledge of the environment, we need to know the motivators and factors that make future in order to guess the future. But due to increased environmental dynamics and proliferation of environmental variables and complications, the future has become unpredictable than before, while our need for prediction is not diminished.
He added; for solving this problem, the scenario process with the logic of “what if” and “if then” was raised in which the scenario does not tell a definite future, but speaks of alternative possibilities that can happen in the future. Which one of these probabilities will come up is a big question. In general, a dynamic organization predicts alternative possibilities and has a time pass (investigating different states towards a possible future).
Dr. Khazaei said; since the environment forms 70 percent of the future of an organization, knowing the environment is the first step in managing the planning and investigating the organization's vision. Of a variety of environmental methods, which are about 40, one can refer to environmental scanning, management issue, trend extrapolation methods. These methods should be used according to the existing conditions, because each method has a different application. Therefore, we need to properly understand the shortcomings and abilities of each one, so that we can eventually predict the future by combination of different approaches.
The training workshop ended with a review of issues such as Iran and Middle East scenario until 2020, as well as the future scenario of energy until 2020 and answering the questions of audiences.